Challenge pass probability calculator
Under the reference profile (45% win rate, 1.5 R average win, 1 R average loss, 1% risk per trade, ~2.5 trades/day), the odds below are computed from 1,500 Monte Carlo paths with fixed seed 42, each figure carrying its 95% confidence interval.
Change the inputs to estimate your own odds: the simulation runs in your browser (Web Worker), nothing is uploaded.
Precomputed on 2026-10-17, recomputed at each deployment. · Methodology
Reference-profile odds by program and size
| Firm / program | 10k | 25k | 50k | 100k | 200k | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTMO FTMO Challenge 2-Step (Challenge + Verification) | 64.7 % (62.3–67.1) | 64.5 % (62.1–66.9) | 64.5 % (62.1–66.9) | 64.5 % (62.1–66.9) | 64.5 % (62.1–66.9) | |||
| FundedNext Stellar 2-Step | 64.7 % (62.3–67.1) | 64.5 % (62.1–66.9) | 64.7 % (62.3–67.1) | 64.7 % (62.3–67.1) | 64.7 % (62.3–67.1) | 64.7 % (62.3–67.1) | ||
| FundedNext Stellar 1-Step | 29.7 % (27.4–32.0) | 31.3 % (29.0–33.7) | 29.7 % (27.4–32.0) | |||||
| FundedNext Stellar Lite | 44.1 % (41.6–46.6) | 44.1 % (41.6–46.6) | 44.1 % (41.6–46.6) | 44.1 % (41.6–46.6) | 44.1 % (41.6–46.6) | 44.1 % (41.6–46.6) | ||
| FundedNext Stellar Instant | 0.0 % (0.0–0.3) | 0.0 % (0.0–0.3) | 0.0 % (0.0–0.3) | 0.0 % (0.0–0.3) | ||||
| FXIFY One Phase | 46.6 % (44.1–49.1) | 46.6 % (44.1–49.1) | 45.7 % (43.2–48.2) | 46.6 % (44.1–49.1) | 46.6 % (44.1–49.1) | 46.6 % (44.1–49.1) | 46.6 % (44.1–49.1) | 46.6 % (44.1–49.1) |
| FXIFY Two Phase | 55.4 % (52.9–57.9) | 55.4 % (52.9–57.9) | 55.4 % (52.9–57.9) | 56.1 % (53.5–58.6) | 56.1 % (53.5–58.6) | 56.1 % (53.5–58.6) | ||
| The5ers High Stakes (2-step) | 29.9 % (27.6–32.2) | 29.9 % (27.6–32.2) | 29.9 % (27.6–32.2) | 30.4 % (28.1–32.8) | 30.4 % (28.1–32.8) | 30.4 % (28.1–32.8) | ||
| The5ers Hyper Growth (1-step, scaling x2) | 46.6 % (44.1–49.1) | 46.6 % (44.1–49.1) | 46.6 % (44.1–49.1) | 45.7 % (43.2–48.2) |
Precomputed at build time from the verified rules — the same figures shown on each program page.
Your own simulation
01
1 · Account
Prop firm
Program
Account size
rules
Verified challenge rules
Phase 1/2 — challenge
- Profit target
- 10.0 %
- Max daily loss
- 5.0 % of initial balance
- Max total loss
- 10.0 % · static
- Min trading days
- 4 days
- Time limit
- none
- Best day cap
- none
Phase 2/2 — verification
- Profit target
- 5.0 %
- Max daily loss
- 5.0 % of initial balance
- Max total loss
- 10.0 % · static
- Min trading days
- 4 days
- Time limit
- none
- Best day cap
- none
Fee: 89 EUR · refundable · Rules verified: 2026-10-01 · ftmo.com
risk
Floors & risk budget
Daily floor
500 USD
5.0 %
Total floor
1,000 USD
10.0 %
Risk / trade
100 USD
10,000 USD
Consecutive losses
5
02
2 · Risk budget
Consecutive losses before the daily floor
5 losses5 losses in a row reach the daily floor.
03
3 · Trading profile
Quick profiles
45.0 %
1.5 R
1.0 R
1.00 % · 100 USD
Trades per day
Adjust your profile on the left — the simulation runs automatically here.
Methodology and hypotheses
Reference profile: 45% win rate, average win 1.5 R, average loss 1 R, 1% risk per trade, ~2.5 trades per day, 1,500 Monte Carlo paths, fixed seed. Simplified estimates under stated hypotheses — not a guarantee, not advice.
Simplified engine hypotheses: trades close instantly (no open positions intraday), no spread/slippage/commissions (PnL = R × risk), each phase restarts from the initial balance, profit target checked at end of trade, phase switch at end of day. Rules and fees come from the official pages (verified dates on each program page) and change often.
- Simulators : Reference-profile odds by program and size
- Monte Carlo : 1500 × graine 42 (mulberry32), IC95 Wilson
Educational tool. Probabilities come from simulations under simplified assumptions; they do not guarantee any outcome. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves a substantial risk of loss. This site is not affiliated with or endorsed by the prop firms mentioned — partner links, marked as such, are the only exception.